Square Footage Calculation for the Library
First, a service area was determined for the new library. The Jefferson Madison Regional Library approach for determining library service areas encompasses that area that falls within a six-mile radius around the library location. When a six mile radius is drawn with the Harris/Amato site as the center point, the circle includes the Crozet Development area and adjoining rural areas. The circle cuts across a number of census blocks, which are the standard unit of measurement for population. In order to make sure that the broadest potential population was included as a starting point, this methodology went beyond the geographical area delineated by the six-mile radius circle and included the full area for all census blocks that had any portion included in the circle as illustrated in Attachment A. Thus the initial service area represented in this methodology extends beyond the standard six-mile radius and includes significant portions of western, northern and southern Albemarle County in addition to the Crozet development area.
An assessment of this initial service area indicates several mitigating factors that should be considered. One census block in Ivy that contains a significant level of population is also contained within the service areas for other libraries, which causes a double or triple count of that population if that area is also included in the Crozet service area. It is reasonable to assume that at least some portion of those residents would continue to use the downtown library facilities that they are currently using Portions of two census blocks are also contained in what has been defined as the service area for a future southern library which is currently in the CIP for construction in 2014. Even if that date is pushed back for a period of several years, it seems clear that at some point within the next 15 years we can anticipate construction of a new library in the southern area that will impact the service area of the Crozet library as it is broadly defined above. This assumption is further supported by the fact that those census blocks are centered along Route 29 South which provides a much more direct transportation link to the southern library than any access west to Crozet.
The next step was to determine future population for the designated service area considering the mitigating factors mentioned above. The service area contains both the Crozet development area and also surrounding rural areas, which have significantly different rates of growth. While projecting population trends twenty years into the future is a challenging and inexact process, staff has attempted to provide projections for planning purposes based on historic trends and realistic assumptions.
The starting point of population for the Crozet development area in 2006 is 4798, based on a comprehensive analysis conducted by the County’s GDS staff in cooperation with a committee of Crozet residents. The starting point of population for the rural areas outside of the development area in 2006 is 14,286 based on U. S. Census data. Thus the total starting point for the population projection for the service area is 19,084.
Staff calculated anticipated population growth by using a 5% growth rate for the development area (which is consistent with the 12,500 in 20 year figure used in the master plan) and using a 0.5% growth rate for the rural areas, (which is one-third of the overall growth rate for the county since rural area growth accounts for 1/3 and development area growth accounts for 2/3 of the county’s overall growth). The Jefferson Madison Regional Library standard, which is also utilized in the Community Facilities section of the County’s Comprehensive Plan, is to plan for .7 square feet per person in determining total square footage.
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