COUNTY OF ALBEMARLE

 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

 

 

AGENDA TITLE:

Crozet Population and Housing Estimates

 

SUBJECT/PROPOSAL/REQUEST:

Crozet Population and Housing Estimates 2005 Revised and 2006

 

STAFF CONTACT(S):

Tucker, Foley, Davis, Cilimberg, Weaver

 

LEGAL REVIEW:   Yes

 

AGENDA DATE:

October 11, 2006

 

ACTION:                                INFORMATION:   

 

CONSENT AGENDA:

  ACTION:                              INFORMATION:   X

 

ATTACHMENTS:    Yes

 

 

REVIEWED BY:

 

 

 

BACKGROUND:

Community Development Department staff has prepared County population and housing estimates by comprehensive plan area for internal use on a fairly regular basis since 1990.  Dwelling unit (DU) counts, updated after a certificate of occupancy permit is issued, are calculated by querying the CityView development tracking system database.  Totals are then tabulated by comprehensive plan area.  A multiplier (average persons per household by DU type) derived from US Census data is applied to the various DU counts to determine an estimated population by comprehensive plan area. 

 

STRATEGIC PLAN:

Goal 4:  Effectively Manage Growth and Development

 

DISCUSSION:

In the past year, growth and development in Crozet has been a significant issue for Crozet residents and an important consideration for the Planning Commission and Board of Supervisors in their decision-making process.  In May, following the review of independent research that was presented to staff by Crozet residents, a comprehensive review of Crozet data was undertaken to validate the number of DUs reported in the 2005 estimate.  The review took place over several months and included a new assessment of building permit and certificate of occupancy activity, a GIS analysis comparing DU locations and land use types, a review of CityView database update/maintenance procedures and field verification.  This review found certain inaccuracies in data as a result of the conversion to the new CityView development tracking software package and inaccurate housing counts due to housing conversions.  These inaccuracies are accounted for in the 2005 Revised Estimate listed below.  With these inaccuracies addressed, new DU counts based on certificate of occupancy permits were then calculated resulting in the new 2006 Estimate for Crozet.  The results are as follows:

 

                                                                        Dwelling Units                Population

2005 Estimate:                                      1,451                            3,605

2005 Revised Estimate:                          1,660                            4,305

2006 Estimate:                                      1,875                            4,798

 

Based on this rather extensive analysis, staff has introduced many new quality checks to increase the accuracy of data that is entered and extracted from CityView and is planning to comprehensively review DU data for other comprehensive plan areas on a continuous basis coinciding with master planning initiatives.

 

BUDGET IMPACT:

None anticipated.

 

RECOMMENDATIONS:

This is provided as an update for information purposes only.  Staff will begin using the new DUs for 2006 as the baseline in its tables tracking development activity in Crozet, the most current of which is attached (Attachment A).

 

ATTACHMENTS:

A - http://cobsqltest01/ESAttachments/Copy%20of%20Crozet%20Units9-06.xls

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